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Forum:2012 Pacific hurricane season
November Has come, but aside from Rosa crossing over from October, I think EPac is pretty much done. Maybe one more named storm. Ryan1000 14:23, November 1, 2012 (UTC) We may have sergio out of this new invest.Allanjeffs 01:18, November 4, 2012 (UTC) Da Epik Gallereh 2012 Yes. Post EPAC pics here, plz! :D ALETTA.png|TS Aletta CARLY.png|Hurricane Carly GILLY.png|Hurricane Ma-Gil ILL.png|Hurricane Illeanna Retirements at a Glance Here's mine: *All names - 0% - No big impacts. Isaac829 00:27, October 19, 2012 (UTC) Mine: *Aletta - 0% - It was a fun pre-season storm to follow, but it had no impact on land. *Bud - 1% - Fun storm to follow, but very minimal damage. *Carlotta - 6% - Killed three people. *Daniel - 0% - Impressive major hurricane, but no. *Emilia - 0% - See Daniel's section. *Fabio - 0% - Became a hurricane, and that's it. *Gilma - 0% - See Fabio's section. *Hector - 1% - Minimal land impacts. *Ileana - 0% - See Fabio and Gilma's sections. *John - 1% - See Hector's section. *Kristy - 1% - See Hector and John's sections. *Lane - 0% - See Fabio, Gilma, and Ileana's sections. *Miriam - 0% - See Daniel and Emilia's sections. *Norman - 7% - Five people are currently missing. *Olivia - 0% - Epic, epic, epic fail. *Paul - 1% - See Bud's section. *Rosa - 0% - Credit for shear, but no. AndrewTalk To Me 11:08, May 20, 2012 (UTC) : Mine : Aletta- 0% have fun tracking you. thanks to heat the tropics my darling. : Bud-2% at least pass near Mexico and the first major of the season but Bud, the card that you pull near the coast make your chances of retirement come down and really down. : Carlotta-15% 3 deaths but she didn`t cause enormous so she is staying. : Daniel- 0%love you but no : Emilia 0% meh nothing just a cat 4 in here : Fabio 0 % just rain to LA and nothing more. : Gilma0% didn`t affect land. : Hector 0% First fail of the season pathetic : Ileana:0% good to watch but no : John0% and the first epic fail of the season has form and die : Kristy0% I give she was resilent over cold water : Lane 0% nop : Miriam 1% you are staying my darling : Norman 5 you are the one with most probablility of living the list along with Carlotta but I know both of you are staying. : Olivia 0% fail you didn`t reach hurricane strength : Paul 2 % just showers to Baja : Rosa??? : Imo none are leaving but who knows maybe Norman or Carlotta can have an Alma and be taken out ::: Allanjeffs 21:18, July 3, 2012 (UTC) Here's my predictions: * Aletta - 0% - Early kickoff to the seson, but no impact, so no retirement. * Bud - 3% - Sorry, Buddy, but that's all I can give you. * Carlotta - 15% - It caused 107 million in damage to Mexico, but that isn't severe enough for retirement. * Daniel - 0% - Didn't affect any land. * Emilia - 0% - Strongest of the season, but never hit land * Fabio - Nothing to really say here. * Gilma - 0% - Became a hurricane, but nothing else. * Hector - 0% - No effects on land. * Ileana - 0% - Didn't affect land. * John - 0% - Epic fail. * Kristy - 0% - Nothing much. * Lane - 0% - Not expected to hit land. * Miriam - 0% - Beame a major, but that's it. * Norman - 8% - He left some people missing and caused flood damage as well. Not that bad, but not negligible either. * Olivia - 0% - What's that now? * Paul - 1% - *facepalm* * Rosa - 0% - Um...NO. Ryan1000 16:23, May 26, 2012 (UTC) CobraStrike: *Aletta - 0% - No impacts, and a weak storm. *Bud - 2% - Bud pulled a Don at landfall, caused some issues, but dissipated so quickly it wasn't a problem. *Carlotta - 6% - Caused 2 fatalities and widespread flooding, but the impacts were not large enough to support a retirement. CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 18:35, June 19, 2012 (UTC) True Golden Blaze: *Aletta- Meh, no. *Bud - 1.5% Gave Mexico a little shock, but didn't do much. *Carlotta - 11.5% Carlotta's landfall did pull off some deaths, but not enough to get it's name crossed out. *Daniel - Will do nothing and die out in the cold Central Pacific waters. *Emilia - Some waves but no threat to land. At current intensifying rate, could get a Cat 3 or 4. True Golden Blaze 01:35, July 9, 2012 (UTC) Well, it's time for mine I guess. *Aletta - 0% - Nope... *Bud - 0% - Nope... *Carlotta - 0% - Nope... *Daniel - 10% - For it's epicness *Emilia - 0% - Nope... *Fabio - 0% - Nope... *Gilma - 0% - Nope... *Hector - 0% - Nope... *Illeana - 0% - Nope... *John - 0% - Nope... *Kristy - 0% - Nope... *Lane - 1% - For it's coolness *Miriam - 10% - For it's epicness *Olivia - 0% - Unless it becomes a major hurricane... Kiewii! 21:58, October 6, 2012 (UTC) Kiewii, are you sure about Bud and Carlotta? They had minimal damage. AndrewTalk To Me 23:42, August 11, 2012 (UTC) :Of course I'm sure. It is very obvious they will not be retired so there isn't any need for any percentages. —''12R. '' 01:16, August 12, 2012 (UTC) :::Well, I just wouldn't say 0% for Bud/Carlotta since they did affect land and did kill people. Not to say I think they will be retired, but I don't think they deserve a 0%. Ryan1000 17:53, August 12, 2012 (UTC) *Aletta: 0% - Absolutely no effects on land masses. *Bud: 3% - Some effects on Mexico *Carlotta: 5% - Killed two girls and slight damage. *Daniel: 0% - Only slight effects on Hawaii. *Emilia: 0% - See Daniel's section. *Fabio: 0% - Nothing to say. *Gilma: 0% - No land masses affected. *Hector: 0% - Fail. *Ileana: 0% - Didn't affect any land, but it was a hurricane. *John: 0% - Even more of a fail than Hector. *Kristy: 0% - Nothing. *Lane: 0% - See Ileana's section. *Miriam: 0% - Didn't do anything except for becoming a major. *Norman: 1% - Very minimal damage. *Olivia: 0% - I don't think so. *Paul: 3% - Minimal damage. *Rosa: 0% - Seriously doubt it. Simlover123 (talk) 03:15, August 13, 2012 (UTC) Ok, here's mine! (I'm Liz) *Aletta = -1/10. Hawaiian kid that lazes in the ocean. Like the red angry bird. *Bud = 2/10. Well... He did brush up the Mexico coast... *but he flopped like Bubbles off Angry Birds* *Carlotta = 3/10. Carly. You did kill people, right? Carlotta: I didn't know that! -cries- *Daniel = 0/10. Expelliarmus! (fail.) Even though he went to typhoon land. *Emillia = 0/10. Aloha, Emillia! You did nothing, nothing, nothingggggg. *Fabio = 0/10. The Fab I Oh did nothing too. *Gilma = 0/10. Try again Gilma... you can do better. Red Angry bird. *Hector = 0/10. Hector, I know you were a crossover, but you just lazed. *Illeanna <-- (Is this how you spell this name?) = 0.5/10. Just like another Beatriz... Like Chuck the yellow bird from angry birds. *john = -99999/10. F-A-I-L, you aint got no alibi... lol *Kristy = 0/10. She was john's lil sister! *lane = ??? Do I even know huh? Let's take da trip down memory lane *mariam = 0% didnt do anything *norman = 0% time to go back to normandy *olivia = 0% like a floating nyan cat in hawaii (i.e. did nothing) *paul = 1% nothing So, anyone agreed? :D 19:21, October 20, 2012 (UTC) @Liz: If I were to give percentages, I'd give Norman and Carlotta 5%, Bud and Paul 1%, and everything else 0% since they either had no affect on land or the countries they affected won't bother retirement. And the correct spelling is Ileana. AndrewTalk To Me 23:59, October 20, 2012 (UTC) ok (rides rainbow dash in ileana) i understand! :D 18:43, October 22, 2012 (UTC) Mid-season predictions Entering the year, after over predicting the last two years, I set my exceptions moderate, with 13-8-4. After an active early July and the GFS showing a major surge in activity a few weeks ago that turned into three fails, I raised it to 18-9-4 (though I have a bias towards the EPAC) and I started getting really excited. I've lowered mine to 14-10-5. Despite there being an El Nino, it has that quiet feel, it has the feel of a dead center and a big quiet phase. With all of the recent 80 and 90% busts, I am starting to get frustrated with the EPAC. Thank goodness for HURDAT going back pre-1995, or I would have not survived the two seasons. At least 2009, 2008, and 2006-00 were decent. Ill apologize for my rant above, I just needed to get it off my chest. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] 04:25, July 30, 2012 (UTC) I'll go with 14-9-6. Honestly, we should've reached Illena (if those three busts were upgraded). AndrewTalk To Me 11:53, July 30, 2012 (UTC) I say 14 to 16 name storms this basin has really come down from producing 18 to 21 name storms to 12to 14 really sad.*signs*Allanjeffs 14:15, July 30, 2012 (UTC) Post-Season Changes This forum had been left untouched for a while, but the NHC rescently released some new TCRs here (well, they were finished a few weeks ago, but only today did they update their website). Does anyone have speculations on what might happen post-season? I think some of the 80% invests earlier this year might be upgraded to unnumbered depressions or unnamed storms, after thought to bust operationally. 'Ryan1000' 16:35, October 24, 2012 (UTC) Here are my predictions: 90E (Late July) - Tropical Storm Seven: 95% - I don't get why this wasn't called Gilma, and has a high chance of becoming an unnamed storm because I think it was a TS briefly. 95E (Late June) - Tropical Storm Five: 90% - I'm quite certain this could've been called Daniel, but it was too close to land for the NHC to issue advisories on it: 93E (Early June) - Tropical Storm Three: 70% - Not as certain, but I think this should have briefly been TS Carlotta. Hurricane Carlotta - Major Hurricane Carlotta: 10% - Doubt it'll happen, but who knows? *Well, I was wrong. Carlotta was only upped to a 110 mph hurricane. Hurricane Fabio - Major Hurricane Fabio: 2% - ^^ *Just like Carlotta, Fabio was only upped to a 110 mph storm. Tropical Storm Olivia - Hurricane Olivia: 1% - Doubtful. *If it wasn't already at 60 mph, it is now, but no hurricane. Otherwise, I don't think any significant updates in intensity will occur. AndrewTalk To Me 12:42, October 28, 2012 (UTC) Also, the TCR's of Bud, Daniel, and Emilia came out. AndrewTalk To Me 02:35, October 31, 2012 (UTC) Probably none will be upgrade the NHC doesn`t upgrade invest to td or ts in the Eastern pacific if I remember correctly they have never done it and if they do maybe a td not a ts.Allanjeffs 05:08, October 31, 2012 (UTC) Well, it's happened here, but not since Tropical Depression One-E in 1996 was retroactively upgraded to a tropical storm. AndrewTalk To Me 11:58, October 31, 2012 (UTC) It is not very likely NHC will upgrade the early-season invests because they rarely ever have. There is an outside chance, and I think they were brielfy named, but I dont know. 'Ryan1000' 14:14, November 1, 2012 (UTC) Frankly speaking, IDC if hurricanes get upgraded to "majors." What's the point? They didn't even affect land... Aletta flopping near Hilo... -_- LOL Can Emmy (Emmiliya) get a cat 5 and an Emmy award? 20:36, November 3, 2012 (UTC) @Liz: Emilia's TCR is already out and it's still a Category 4. AndrewTalk To Me 20:53, November 3, 2012 (UTC) Gilma, Hector, and John are out.Isaac829 20:38, November 13, 2012 (UTC) There aren't any surprises with any of them. We'll probrably have some more left when December starts, when the last section of the betting pools is open. Florence remains the only one out in ATL as of now. 'Ryan1000' 21:21, November 13, 2012 (UTC) Rosa is out.Isaac829 20:38, December 7, 2012 (UTC) She was weaker than actually thought.Allanjeffs 21:07, December 10, 2012 (UTC) Fabio and Carlotta are out with almost no changes.Isaac829 20:39, January 7, 2013 (UTC) Well, both of them were upped to 110 mph, but neither became majors. I am not too surprised neither became majors. Also, if it was not already at 60 mph, Olivia is now per its recently released TCR. I believed it had an extremely slim chance of becoming a hurricane, but it did not, and that does not surprise me at all. AndrewTalk To Me 00:59, January 8, 2013 (UTC) : The last TCR, Lane, has came out.Isaac829 20:32, January 31, 2013 (UTC) ::: Looks like EPac's all done. Lane's TCR really came out 3 days ago but NHC didn't update their website until today. So that's all for EPac while Chris, Leslie, and Sandy are still remaining in ATL. Also, not sure if anyone noticed this before (I think I mentoned it before on the ATL forum at some point), the 2012 EPac season is the first EPac season in history to have no unnamed tropical depressions in the entire season. The ATL had no unnamed depressions in 2012 as well, but it's not the first time it happened. 'Ryan1000' 12:01, February 1, 2013 (UTC) Farewell The Pacific hurricane season is in its ultimate peril. I assume it is now appropriate to begin this section, just like in the Atlantic. This year, in the Pacific, we saw (pending post-season changes): *17 total depressions (could be upped to 18), *17 total storms (could be upped to 18), *10 hurricanes, *five major hurricanes, *an accumulated cyclone energy of 98, *$123.2 million (2012 USD) dollars in damages, *and eight deaths. Overall, the Pacific hurricane season was near normal. The only storm I see being remembered to even a moderate extent impactwise is Carlotta. Other than two May storms and a rare May major hurricane, nothing meteorologically special happened this year. And just like in the Atlantic, the ACE this year sucked for a season with 17 storms because most stayed away from land (Well, Pacific hurricanes do that all the time). However, I belive that starting in 2013 and for the next few years, the Pacific will be knocked into an activity cycle just like what occured from 1982 to 1985. Any opinions? AndrewTalk To Me 03:38, November 29, 2012 (UTC) Yep, the 2011 East Pacific hurricane season has finally ceased to exist. 17 storms isn't half bad, but nothing's exceptionally special. Sure we had a bit of notability with Carlotta's impact in Mexico, but nothing else can really be said. Nothing like last year anyways. 'Ryan1000' 16:13, November 29, 2012 (UTC) yeah 1998 was another ATL that didn`t present tds.yeah just because of Lane I lost Ileana came just a couple of days before.Allanjeffs 20:46, February 1, 2013 (UTC) :Respectable season, better than 2011, did well despite cold PDO, but let's bring on 2013. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 21:50, April 13, 2013 (UTC) Retirements at a glance, part 2 Just like in the Atlantic, I'll update my retirement percentages. Here they are: #Aletta - 0% #Bud - 1% #''Carlotta - 10% #Daniel - 0% #Emilia - 0% #Fabio - 0% #Gilma - 0% #Hector - <1% #Ileana - 0% #John - <1% #Kirsty - <1% #Lane - 0% #Miriam - 0% #''Norman - 5%'' #Olivia - 0% #Paul - 1% #Rosa - 0% AndrewTalk To Me 03:38, November 29, 2012 (UTC) My final calls are here (though I don't expect any retirements here): *Aletta - 0% *Bud - 3% *Carlotta - 15% *Daniel - 0% *Emilia - 0% *Fabio - 0% *Gilma - 0% *Hector - ~0% *Ileana - 0% *John - 0% *Kristy - 0% *Lane - 0% *Miriam - 0% *Norman - 4% *Olivia - 0% *Paul - 3% *Rosa - 0% The general summary: *'Definitely retired -' None. *'Probrably retired -' None. *'Possibly retired -' None. *'Probrably not retired -' Carlotta. *'Not retired '- Everyone else. Ryan1000 16:17, November 29, 2012 (UTC) Summary: *Probably not retired - Carlotta. *Not retired - The rest of the names. Isaac829 05:27, December 1, 2012 (UTC) And no names are retired...Isaac829 19:43, April 11, 2013 (UTC)